Best Investment Book Recommendations

I’m often asked to recommend the “best” investment book for investors, especially at this time of the year.  Where are a number of helpful investment books available, I always recommend “Winning the Loser’s Game: Timeless Strategies for Successful Investing” by Charles D. Ellis.  Now in its fifth edition, Ellis forgoes mathematical equations and writes in a style that is easy to understand.

What sets “Winning the Loser’s Game” apart from many other investment books is its emphasis on risk management, not the management of returns, as the key to successful wealth management.  Throughout the book, Ellis provides practical advice with supporting details.

While “Winning the Loser’s Game” is my choice if I am limited to just one choice, my second choice would be “The Intelligent Investor” by Benjamin Graham.  Graham’s classic is almost always on any list of “must read” investment books and his advice and recommendations have stood the test of time.

Either of these books would be worthy stocking stuffers for the investors in your family.

Thanks for following my blog.  Hopefully we have provided some useful information this year.

Happy holidays and best wishes for a prosperous new year!

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Trust, But Verify

I recently read an article, “Trust, Stupidity and Fraud,” which discussed the so-called “unholy trinity” of financial planning.  The article, written by Australian attorney Peter Bobbin, forecast a rise in fraud within the financial planning industry.  In analyzing fraud, Bobbin stated that

Every fraud is made up of simple components.  Stupidity of the client plays an important role, but trust and betrayal of it is the key component.  Warning No. 1: Clients do stupid things because they trust their advisors.

While I agree with the sentiments regarding fraud in terms of trust and the betrayal of such trust, I feel that the remarks regarding a client stupidity is overly harsh.  I would replace “stupidity” with “inexperienced and lacking sufficient education.”  That’s what this blog is all about. providing information to investors to help them become more proactive in protecting their financial security.

While everyone would like to trust everyone else, blind trust is often harmful.  The quote, “trust, but verify,” was often used by President Reagan in connection with his relationship with Russia.  A little skepticism is never harmful, especially when it involves personal finances.  Any investor whose financial adviser who is offended by a client’s request for information or explanations should seriously consider finding another adviser.

As an attorney, investment/wealth management adviser, and a former compliance director, I openly admit that I have a viewpoint that is quite often significantly different from other industry professionals.  Some find it odd that I advise both investors and investments advisers.  My goal is to improve the overall quality of advice being provided to the public in order to prevent unnecessary financial losses.  I feel the best way to do that is helping both the public and the industry.

That being said, there are two current financial planning/wealth management practices to which the “trust, but verify” definitely apply, portfolio construction and portfolio management.  Here is a simple test I suggest to everyone who has had, or is planning to have, a financial plan and/or portfolio optimization plan prepared for them.  Ask the planner to provide you with a plan that provides you with projected risk, return and correlation of returns information based upon the actual investment products being recommended.

Seems like a logical and a reasonable request, right?  But do not be surprised when they tell you that they cannot provide such a report.  The problem lies in the fact that most financial plans are prepared using software programs that can only prepare plans based on generic asset classes.  These generic asset classes do not take into consideration common investment concerns such as fees, expenses and taxes, items that can drastically reduce the return to an investor.

Given the failure of investment advisers to provide a “real world” analysis of their investment recommendations, I have always wondered how advisers can verify the suitability of their recommendations and the consistency between their investment recommendations and the representations in the plan that was used to convince a client to buy/sell investment products.  In fact, when I question advisers about this and ask them why they do not provide “real world” analyses, especially since there are Excel programs that can provide such analyses for their clients, I generally get the blank, “deer in the headlights” look.  I am not alone in my question, as Nobel laureate Dr. William F. Sharpe has also questioned the failure to provide analyses based on an investor’s actual investments.

Furthermore, I have always found it strange that advisers use generic data to provide recommendation, information analogous to passive, index funds, then attempt to sell clients actively managed investment products, despite the fact that studies have consistently shown that the majority of actively managed investment products underperform their passively managed counterparts.

The second “trust. but verify” topic is portfolio management.  Time and time again I see cases where a client says their adviser explained portfolio losses by saying that “it’s the market, everyone is losing money.”  We have a separate white paper on our site that deals with this situation (under the “Market Myths” tab) on a more detailed basis.

The bottom line is that everyone is not losing money.  The reason people supposedly hire investment mangers is to avoid large and unnecessary investment losses.  There are a number of sound, proven techniques that can be used to protect an investor’s portfolio.  The courts have rules that the failure to implement or discuss such strategies with a client can constitute a breach of the adviser’s fiduciary duty to a client.

There are still a number of investors and investment professional who adhere to the antiquated buy-and-hold approach to investing.  To quote Will Rogers, “even if you’re on the right track, you’ll get run over of you just sit there.”  A buy-and-hold approach blindly ignores the facts that history has clearly shown the market is cyclical, with definite bull and bear markets.  If anything good has come out of the 2000-2002 and 2008 bear markets, hopefully it has been to reinforce to investors that buy-and-hold makes no sense and that successful investment management is a reasoned, yet dynamic, process.

When I am asked what one piece of advice I would give investors. my response is “be proactive.”  Ask questions and keep asking questions.  To paraphrase Denzel Washington from the movie “Philadelphia,” insist on explanations that a four-year-old can understand.  Do not fall victim to the “truth bias”, blindly accepting anything told to you by someone who appears to be knowledgeable and have authority.  Do not be intimidated by spreadsheets, calculations and the almighty pie charts.  Here is a little inside secret.  Redo the first few lines of one of the spreadsheets and discover for yourself the “oops” quotient often found throughout these plans.

Trust, but verify.  Willful blindness simply exposes an investor to unnecessary risk of financial loss.  If you do not act to protect yourself, then maybe Bobbin is correct after all.

 

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The InvestSense Challenge

Protect your financial security with our new white paper, “The InvestSense Challenge.”  The Challenge provides key information and industry ”secrets” in a “quick” format in furtherance of our motto/mission, the power of the informed investor.

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PACE Your Way to Investment Success

In reviewing and creating investment portfolios, InvestSense uses the acronym PACE as a fundamental guideline.  PACE stands for proactive portfolio management, absolute returns, correlation of returns and expense control.  By focusing on these four areas, we not only provide useful information for both individual and institutional clients, but we also address the major fiduciary requirements set out in ERISA.

The Chinese philosopher Lao Tzu once noted that the best way to control anything is to take advantage of its nature.  The market is dynamic and cyclical.  Therefore, an effective portfolio management system should also by dynamic to take advantage of the cyclical nature of the market. 

Buy-and-hold ignores the nature of the market and exposes investors to unnecessary risk of financial losses.  Market timing, trying to catch every move of the market, is equally impractical.  However, monitoring the market and using defensive strategies to avoid unnecessary losses is sound investment management, not market timing.  Studies have consistently shown that avoiding losses has a significantly greater impact on an investment portfolio than missing a potential gain. 

Financial service companies often tout that they are number one over a certain period of time or have led in a particular investment category.  The problem with such ads is that they can paint a misleading picture.  A fund or adviser with poor performance, even negative returns, can still make such representations as long as they outperformed their peers.

Investors should focus on the ability of an investment or an adviser to achieve consistent, positive returns.  Consistent, positive returns allow an investor to reap the benefits of compound returns, which allows their portfolio to grow even faster. 

Correlation of returns among potential investments is an important factor in creating and managing an investment portfolio.  One of the biggest problems in the investment industry today is what I refer to as “pseudo” diversification.  Pseudo diversification involves evaluating diversification based on the quantity and different types of investments in a portfolio.

The problem with evaluating diversification on quantity and types of investments is that is that it does not factor in the extent to which the investments react similarly in different market conditions. A portfolio consisting primarily of highly correlated investments simply does not provide an investor with the benefit of downside protection during downturns in the market.  Expense control is an an area often overlooked by investors.  One study estimated that over a twenty year period, an investor’s overall return is reduced by 16% for each 1% increment of expenses.  Other posts and white papers on our blog have discussed a measure known as the “active expense ratio,” a measurement that calculates the effective cost of actively managed funds against a similar index fund.  Generally speaking, the effective cost of active management results in an effective overall management fees signficantly higher that the fund’s publicly stated fee, often three to four times higher.

While we use PACE in constructing and advising portfolios for individuals, PACE is also appropriate for institutional investors.  The four components of PACE address a fiduciary’s duty of prudence under ERISA.

The acronym PACE was also chosen based on the fact that it distinguishes the difference between true investing and speculation.  As Ben Graham, recognized by many as the greatest investors of all time, once noted, the true secret to successful investment management is the management of investment risk, not investment returns.  The four components of PACE allow an investor the best of both worlds by focusing on risk management, while at the same time creating a portfolio that provides both upside potential and downside risk protection.

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New White Paper

New white paper posted on our web site, CommonSense InvestSense, at www.investsense.com.  “Investment Fraud ‘Secrets’: How to Avoid Becoming a Victim of Investment Fraud,” examines the role of internal beliefs and biases that often prevent investors from recognizing investment fraud and properly protecting themselves from becoming a victim of fraud.  The white paper is available under “Investment Fraud Secrets” tab on the main page.

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401k Investors’ Right to “Sufficient Information to Make an Informed Decision”

Watching the recent sell-off in the markets and the reported trillion dollar daily losses for investors, I cannot help but wonder how much of those losses were preventable, especially for 401k investors. 401k plans are increasingly opting for participant directed retirement plans that shift the risk and burden of retirement investing on the plan participants. Even though ERISA permits plan sponsors to provide investment education programs for plan participants, there is increasing concern among plan sponsors and others that participants may not be able to effectively manage their retirement accounts.

As you review ERISA and other applicable retirement plan related legislation, you notice three persistent themes, or duties, for fiduciaries: prudence, diversification and the avoidance of large losses. In discussing these duties, modern portfolio theory is constantly mentioned as the standard in assessing compliance with these duties.

Dr. Harry Markowitz introduced the concept of Modern Portfolio Theory (MPT) in 1952. Prior to MPT, most portfolios were constructed based purely on risk and return data. With MPT, Markowitz introduced the concept of including the correlation of returns of available investment options as a factor in constructing investment portfolios. By factoring in the correlation of returns, an investor can combine investments that behave differently in various market conditions, which theoretically reduces the overall volatility of the investment portfolio. While MPT’s calculations have been the subject of legitimate criticism, the benefit of combining assets with low correlations of return is still valid. Both the Department of Labor and the courts still point to the principles of modern portfolio theory as the applicable standard for assessing the prudence of actions taken under ERISA.

And yet, based upon my experience, most retirement plans do not provide retirement plan participants with correlation of returns information to help them make informed investment decisions. Participants are generally only provided with information regarding an investment’s annual returns and standard deviation. As a result, plan participants often end up with portfolios that are not effectively diversified, leaving the participant needlessly exposed to investment risk.

Plan participants are often offered various investment options, with funds described as large cap, small cap, growth, value, international, and emerging. Without correlation of returns information, a plan participant often constructs a portfolio seemingly diversified based purely upon the number of funds and the difference in names of their investments. Investors are therefore lulled into a false sense of security by this “pseudo” diversification.

Without correlation of returns information on the plan’s available investment options, plan participants are unaware that many of their investment choices behave similarly in different market conditions, thereby providing little if any protection against downturns in the market. Studies have consistently shown an increase in the correlation of returns of equity based investments of all kinds, including international equity investment products. Furthermore, studies have shown that over the past decade, the correlation of returns among equity based investments has increased even more during periods of volatility in the market, effectively reducing the perceived benefits of diversification.

Most 401k plans have chosen to adopt participant directed plans under Section 404(c) of ERISA. One of the requirements for qualifying under 404(c) is that the plan sponsor provide plan participants with “sufficient information to make an informed decision” regarding the plan’s available investment options. Given the fact that ERISA, the Department of Labor and the courts have recognized MPT as the applicable standard for prudence with regard to retirement plans, and that the cornerstone of MPT is using correlation of returns in the portfolio construction process, one can legitimately question whether a retirement plan’s failure to provide plan participants with correlation of returns information for a plan’s investment options allows a plan participant to make an informed decision as required under the law. Furthermore, a question arises as to whether the failure to provide such information constitutes a breach of fiduciary duty by the retirement plan’s named fiduciary.

I believe that these are questions that are soon to be presented given the LaRue decision, which established the right of plan participants to bring personal actions for losses incurred in their retirement accounts, and the investment losses that plan participants are suffering. While many retirement plans offer some sort of investment education programs, my experience has been that such programs are usually provided by companies that are serving as service providers to a plan and are seriously lacking in meaningful content.

The typical education programs that I see consists of a number of multi-color pie charts and simplistic recommendations such as to select an asset allocation and never change that allocation, except for an occasional re-balancing to the original allocation. This “buy-and- hold” approach, sometimes referred to as the “buy, forget and regret” approach to investing, completely ignores the cyclical nature of the market and is contrary to the standards for prudent investing established by the Restatement of Trusts (Third) Prudent Investor Act. Investors would be better served to follow the advice of Chinese philosopher Lao Tzu, who advised that “the best way to manage anything is by making use of its nature.”

I have yet to come across one retirement plan educational program that discloses the correlation of returns data for a plan’s actual investment options or addresses the use of such data in constructing an effectively diversified investment portfolio, even though there is no legal prohibition from providing such information. In fact, ERISA Section 404(c) and Department of Labor Interpretive Bulletin 96-1 clearly support disclosure of such information.

Plan participants are legally entitled to information that allows them to make informed decisions, to protect their financial security. Correlation of returns data provides valuable information to plan participants as it allows them to effectively diversify their investment portfolios in order to prevent large losses. Court decisions have indicated that the failure to provide such information to plan participants raises questions as to whether a participant can truly exercise control over their retirement account, which is one of the requirements for a 404(c) plan.

Plan participants should request up-to-date correlation of returns data annually for every investment option offered in their retirement plans. A refusal by a plan’s sponsor to provide such information should be noted and the plan participant should seek such information from an independent investment adviser in order to properly protect their financial security. My feelings, warnings and advice with regard to the typical retirement plan educational programs can best be summed up by points eight and twelve at http://bit.ly/4zkE5k.

For additional information on wealth preservation strategies and avoiding unnecessary investment losses, please read our white paper, “Everyone Is Not Losing Money – Investment Myths and the Unnecessary Investment Losses They Create,” by selecting the “Investment Myths” tab on our home site, investsense.com

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Three Numbers Every Investor and Fiduciary Should Remember

The abundance of investment products and investment information available today can be intimidating and confusing to many investors, both novice and professional.  Over my twenty-plus years as an attorney and investment adviser, I have tried to help others focus on some of the critical information in order to avoid unnecessary investment losses, to help level the playing field against some of the ne’er-do-well that continue to defraud the public and plague the financial services industry.

Speaking with a colleague the other day, he commented on the fact that a lot of the important information we get through trade publications such as InvestmentNews rarely seem to get mentioned in the mainstream media and press.  And when we mention such information to clients, they often comment on how useful such information would have been.

After my conversation with my colleague, I started thinking about some of the “inside” information I have shared with my clients that produced the most reaction and appreciation.  In hindsight, I think five numbers and five fats have stood out the most to me and my clients.  In this post, I will discuss the five numbers.  I will discuss the five facts in my next post.  That being said, the five numbers every investor and fiduciary should know are as follows:

1. “75″ – The number “75″ is actually important for two reasons.  First, a study by Schwab Institutional found that approximately 75% of investor portfolios were poorly structured and unsuitable for their investors given the investors’ financial needs and goals.  I believe that this is primarily a result of the fact that (1) stockbrokers are not required to act in a client’s best interests, and (2) investors are often mislead by portfolios that appear to be diversified because they hold a number of different types of investments, but such portfolios are often not truly, effectively diversified.

The second reason that the number “75″ is important is because research and history have shown that approximately two-third, or 75%, of stocks follow the general trend of the market.  This simply supports the popular Wall Street adage, “[don't] confuse brains with a bull market.”

2. “94″ - While there are many firms and individuals in the financial services industry calling themselves wealth managers, a study by CEG Worldwide, a well-respected financial services consulting firm, concluded that only 94% of those calling themselves wealth managers or claiming to provide wealth management services failed to meet the criteria used to qualify as wealth managers.  The criteria that CEG used in their study to determine true wealth management was based primarily on advisers who practiced wealth management as a process as compared to those who simply used “wealth management” as a marketing ploy to push product.  This is the same criteria that investors and fiduciaries should use in choosing a financial advisor to work with.

Secondly, one expert has suggested that this number (OK, actually 93.6, which rounded off is 94), and the study that produced it may have caused more damage to investors than any other number/study.  The number comes from the famous 1986 Brinson, Hood and Beebower (BHB) study that stated that 93.6% of the variation of a portfolio’s returns could be explained by the portfolio’s asset allocation. 

The study did not say that asset allocation explained 93.6% of the portfolio’s actual returns, but rather the variation of the portfolio’s returns.  Nevertheless, dishonest brokers and advisers misrepresented, and still do misrepresent,  the BHB study’s findings to convince investors to choose an asset allocation and rigidly adhere to it, despite the proven cyclical nature of the markets.  This is the mantra of the” buy and hold” approach to investing, an approach that some have suggested is better described as the “buy, hold and regret” approach to investing.  Just ask investors how well that worked during the 2000-2002 and 2008 bear markets. 

Unfortunately, given the current budget issues that exist at the time I write this post, static asset allocators may soon get yet another costly education.  Dr. William Sharpe, a Nobel laureate for his work in the area of investment management, now stresses the need to be proactive and adjust portfolio allocations when changes in the economy and/or the market dictate such moves. 

3. Zero – This number represents the number of variable annuities (VA) and equity indexed annuities (EIA) an investor should own.  As a former compliance officer and a current securities attorney I have heard all the convoluted and conniving justifications for these atrocities.  I have written posts and articles warning investors about these products.  While there may be a few limited instances where they may make sense, such as wealth preservation for high net worth investors, the way they are marketed to the masses is extremely questionable. 

One Wall Street Journal article reported that variable annuity salesmen were told to treat potential annuity clients as “blind twelve-year-old,” and to “put a pitchfork in their chests,” and provide questionable responses to potential client’s questions.  VA salesmen and VA advertisements often tout that by purchasing a VA the investor will never run out of money. 

What is often not made clear that in order to guarantee that lifetime stream of money, you give up all rights to the money invested in the VA.  Once you annuitize your VA, the balance goes to the insurance company once you die, not to your heirs.  In most cases the insurance company offers various choices for payout, such as joint survivor and a guaranteed period, but these options generally result in lower periodic payouts and, in  some cases, additional fees. 

One of the most onerous aspects of VAs is the excesssive fees that most VAs charge, especially with regard to the so-called death benefit.  VAs typically guarantee that in the event the VA owner dies with out having annuitized the VA, the owner’s heirs will receive either the accumulated value of the VA at the time of the owner’s death or the amount of the owner’s actual investment in the VA, whichever is greater.  So the VA issuer is only insuring the amount that the VA owner actually puts in the VA.

Meanwhile, the insurance company assesses the VA’s annual death benefit fee not on the basis of their actual legal obligation, which is the amount of the VA owner’s actual investment, but rather on the accumulated value of the VA.  One study estimated that the actual expense of the annual was approximately 0.10-0.12, but that the insurance companies often charged approximately 1.50%, or approximately fifteen times the estimated value, resulting in a nice windfall for the insurance company.  The additional fee also cost a VA investor by reducing this investment return.

EIAs are also problematic.  EIAs are generally sold with the pitch that investors can earn the same return that the stock market does, with the guarantee that even if the market is down, the EIA investor is guaranteed a minimum return.  What many investors are told is that the potential return is usually capped at a relatively low number, say 10%, and then  is reduced even more by a “participation rate,” usually an additional 2-3% reduction.  In short, the EIA investor is looking at annual rate of between 2-7%.  If the market is up 20% or more for the year, just who is getting the benefit of the excess over the investor’s return?  

There may be other significant numbers that I have omitted.  However, investors and fiduciaries that remember these numbers and the reasons for their significance will be in a better position to protect both their financial security and/or their clients’ financial  security.

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